Abstract of the project

Social, economic and ecological change is accelerating in highly developed (anthropised) Alpine areas such as Trentino, changes that combined with the effects of the predicted climate change threaten to alter crop quality, the distribution of existent species, enhance the invasions of exotic species, and cause changes in land use and cover that will reduce biodiversity.

Mountain regions are of local and global importance. They provide resources to half of humankind; including water, energy, food, food products and places for tourism. They are global centers of ecosystem complexity and biodiversity (in the broadest sense). Their steep slopes and sharp gradients make them highly diversified, but fragile ecosystems that are exploited for natural resources and used for recreation activities. In addition, globalization is contributing to the marginalization mountain communities and lessening the competitiveness of the farming sector. Nevertheless the agriculture continues to play a vital role in preserving the environment and landscape. The alpine agriculture has strengthened its multifunctional role as provider of a mix of private goods and public services, most of them are crucial for the tourism sector.

Currently, agriculture plays (directly and indirectly) a key role in Trentino’s economy and in the preservation of its environmental capital. Predicted increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation due to climate change will add complexity and uncertainty to the agriculture system, threaten its sustainable management and have a negative impact on the environment, and hence on tourism. The impact of climate change on the melting of glaciers, reduced water availability, decreased biodiversity, and on plant stress and yield are well known, but climate change will also influence crop quality and dynamics of pest and diseases. Furthermore, competition from a global agriculture will further hamper the development of sustainable approaches to counteract global change. Scenarios and methods of analysis to cope with the multiple factors of global change are being developed and will be required to translate the current knowledge on climate change at the mega scale into local economic scenarios at the local level, a requirement for making sound policy decisions for environmental protection and sustainability.

This project was established to:

1. Assess the short-term impact (up to 25 years) of climatic change on agriculture at the regional level (Trentino) focusing on quality and pest management that are more likely to be influenced by climate change in the short term.

2. Assess the biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change on the region with special attention devoted to evaluating the economic impact on farmer profitability and on community welfare.

3. Evaluate autonomous adjustments and adaptation strategies made by farmers to global change.

4. Evaluate the economic, environmental and social sustainability of selected adaptation strategies.

Stakeholders (growers, cooperatives, extension service etc.) will be involved throughout the research and development process. In particular, they will be involved in determining priorities as to which problems should be examined, in evaluating the research results, and in determining the feasibility of proposed alternatives strategies.

The project integrates existing expertise within the province (agronomy, biotechnology, climatology, computer science and economy), as well as establish cooperative efforts with experts and institutions nationally and internationally to implement knowledge in fields of strategic importance to the region.

The topics of this proposal are included in the priorities of the 7th Framework Programme (FP) of the European Union.