Activity 3

Assessment of biophysical impacts of climate change at multitrophic level on crops

1. Identification of spatial and temporal dynamics of pest/pathogens of Trentino’s major existing crops, their antagonists and their correlation with weather parameters.

2. Identification of spatial and temporal dynamics of pest/pathogens of selected alternative crops and their antagonists and their correlation with weather parameters.

3. Production of EMs from exiting P/P forecast or epidemiological models, the objective is to adjust the existing EMs to be used in the ENVIRO tool.

4. Retrieval of existing data on area, quality, production and P/P of Trentino’s relevant crops. Assembling existing data sets originated from different sources and acquiring missing relevant data on pest and diseases, surface, production and quality of previously mentioned crops, for the validation of the available models with ENVIRO tool.

5. Implementation of missing models for relevant P/P expected to be relevant in the selected scenarios

6. Definition of intra and inter kingdom interactions and food web and their dependency on climate and evaluation of the extent of changes and/or the buffer capacities of the system on the existing relations and interaction under climate changes.

7. Simulation of climate scenarios and their effect on tritrophic interactions among plant, pathogens and biocontrol agents under controlled conditions and comparison of different climates (Mediterranean and alpine) on selected combinations of biocontrol agents, pest/pathogens (artificial inoculation) and crops and on a biocontrol index.

8. Interaction between insects and their pathogens.